Basic Probability of the pandemic

Assignment Requirements

While the primary purpose of this assignment is for you to think about and work with statistical concepts, it is important after you complete your writing that you take the time to review and edit it for coherence, completeness, and grammar. Excessive grammar errors and incoherent writing will lower your grade.

Assignment

For this assignment, you will play with the data and projections provided on the website of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and write about what you see starting with several questions provided.  After that watch the YouTube video. There will be a few more prompts to write about.  At the end of writing about both of these try to think about one way in which basis probability could play a role in the work of your field relative to the pandemic or parts of our society it may impact (you may come up with an idea from your own experience or look for an article or news report that discusses it).

1. Go the following website COVID-19 Projections (Links to an external site.) (Links to an external site.) by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Take a look through the data for Florida and one other state (try to find one where the confirmed cases are still on the rise (looking at the graph Daily infection and testing / confirmed infection view to make this easy to see.) Answer the following prompts and then add whatever additional thoughts you have on the projections.
1. How do you identify the difference between data and probabilities?
2. How would you identify the sample space for each probability? Describe it for each graph.
3. How would you identify the experiments? What do you think accounts for the variance?
4. By examining the probabilities on the graphs, can you identify what projections identified are objective and which are subjective? (the subjective interpretations are based largely on human judgment and experience without calculation. While the objective interpretations are based on concrete measures.)
5. Do you think these graphs are effective for communicating the data and probabilities of the information identified?  Do you see any limitations in the presentation of the data and probabilities? Is there anything that could be done better?
6. Any other thoughts?
2. Watch Simulating and Epidemic  (Links to an external site.)
1. What conditional probabilities are presented in this video?
2. Do you think that the data visualizations are effective? (all, some, none) Why?  Do they help you understand the differences certain interventions could have and why?
3. Any other thoughts?(Links to an external site.)

1. Identify some way that probability might inform activities your field might engage in due to the Coronavirus epidemic.